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The Value of Market Integrity…

“[T]he most important thing was to establish that we (regulators) would not permit anything that is wrong in the Nigerian stock market. Whether in investing in companies or investing through exchanges in Nigeria because nobody would ever accept to give another person money if they know that person will defraud them of that money.  So that was first most important for us, what you will call the restoring the integrity of the market.”

Arunma Oteh, Director General, Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/oteh-attributes-stock-market-recovery-to-reforms/168678/

Herding, Crowding and “Heterogeneous Motivations” (oh my!)

Consider this quote from a local investment professional in Malaysia:

When foreigners sell, that’s the best time to buy. [Foreigners] buy only when the market is going up, and they push the price way up. And they sell all the way down. They do all the wrong things. They are willing to sell all the way down to owning nothing in the Malaysian stock market.

And this one:

Fund managers in foreign houses are exposed to a lot of things. They don’t look at one angle, they look at several angles. Same topic, but they look at different angles. If you can look at a certain situation in a different way, you will win points. So it’s good to talk with foreign funds. Most of them have been longer in the industry than most [Malaysians]. And they are exposed to analysts from different countries, and these analysts have different ways of looking at things.

Which one is right?

Aaron Pitluck, a sociologist, looks at why traders invest in emerging markets, and asks why locals either seem to replicate the foreign traders’ trades, or trade against them.  One explanation is that locals perceive foreigners to be less knowledgable or less skilled (and therefore the locals try to trade against them); another is that locals view foreigners as being at least as well-informed, or better-informed, than locals, causing the locals to imitate the foreign investors.  But which is the more persuasive explanation?

Pitluck suggests a different explanation altogether:  neither is correct. Instead, he posits that local and foreign participants are playing different games and that the games can’t be compared directly.  And this, he suggests, can be good for liquidity:

[O]ne significant contribution to a market’s liquidity may be a market with heterogeneous participants with respect to strategic intentions for trading. Additionally, markets may be more liquid when participants have heterogeneous information sets (i.e., having heterogeneous views of what information is salient and heterogeneous interpretations of public information). Conversely, one cause of illiquidity may be when market participants’ strategic intention sets or information sets become more homogenous, and/or when traders with heterogeneous strategy or information sets increasingly avoid trading.

In other words, although they are usually buying and selling the same securities, local and foreign participants may be guided by divergent motivations that make them willing to trade against each other even though they all have the same information.  Foreign exchange rate fluctuations, for example, may induce foreign investors to sell because it reduces their IRR, even as local investors see a buy opportunity because the new exchange rate promises a favorable benefit to a local listed company.  Or the foreign investor may be liquidating a position in one country to take advantage of an opportunity in another, while local participants are limited by regulation or resources to stay in the local market.  In either case, their strategies are incommensurable; they can’t be described as either “following the herd” or “separating the fools from their money.”  They’re just playing different games.

The point here is that regulations and policies that encourage participation by players with heterogeneous motivations may promote liquidity, because it increases the likelihood that rational participants will meet as counterparties.  Market operators and apex regulators looking to improve liquidity in a local market should therefore consider steps they can take to create the conditions for heterogeneous motivations, whether through loosening barriers to foreign direct investment, or promoting local regulations that will shift the motivations of local participants.

Transparency, Accountability and Participation

Recently, the Open Government Partnership posted an open letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon regarding Open Government and the post-2015 Development Framework.  The letter applauds the report of the UN’s High Level Panel of Eminent Persons (HLPEP) on the Post 2015 Development Agenda, and strongly encourages the Secretary General and the UN to stress transparency, participation and accountability in the next round of global development goals.

While the OGP letter was aimed at policy making well beyond the financial markets, the point that their letter stresses applies equally well to policy makers at an apex financial regulator, and to market operators.  The existence of Big Data, and the ease with which it can be analyzed and understood has changed the calculus between service providers and end users.  End users expect to be able to see and understand what goes on beneath the surface, and to evaluate for themselves the risks and benefits of participation.  They also expect the provider to be accountable for its actions.

What does this mean to a market operator?  It means that in order to attract market participants, the operator must be comfortable with transparency – that is, the operator should offer clear rules and guidance in how the market works; have clear processes for changing the rules of the game; and give participants tools with which to evaluate the market for efficiency and efficacy.  It also means that operators must be responsive to participants.  After all, especially in an emerging market, participants are volunteers – they don’t need to come into your marketplace at all.  If you want them to, you need to make sure they understand what they’re getting into, and that you’ll treat them fairly if they do come.

The same is true for apex regulators.  Regulators must be the policeman on the beat, to be sure, but they are also providing a service – an orderly and predictable market based on honesty and fair play; rules and rulemaking processes that are easy to understand and follow; and a commitment to nurturing new ideas or products proposed by a market operator or participant rather than just reflexively saying “no.” Being a service provider  – in other words, being customer focused – without being too pliant is a difficult balance for a regulator to pull off.  But a regulator who can be transparent, and holds itself accountable to its various constituents, will have credibility when it needs to make the unpopular decisions.  These will, over the long haul, lead to increased participation.

And that’s good for everybody.

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Staffing Advice: “Unite public zeal with unusual capacity”

Nothing less is involved than to keep Wall Street in its place, to furnish a counterpoise against its aggrandisement of power, by which the Street all along the line resists efforts by the government for the common interest. And so plainly, you need administrators who are equipped to meet the best legal brains whom Wall Street always has at its disposal, who have stamina and do not weary of the fight, who are moved neither by blandishments nor fears, who in a word, unite public zeal with unusual capacity.

Advice from Felix Frankfurter to President Franklin Roosevelt on staffing the newly-formed SEC, in a letter dated May 23, 1934, but also sound strategic advice to apex regulators today.

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A First for New Zealand

FMA Head of Enforcement, Belinda Moffat, said this is the first market manipulation case to be taken in New Zealand.  “Market manipulation interferes with the integrity of New Zealand’s financial markets and harms the function of open, transparent and efficient capital markets,” said Ms Moffat.  (Mondovisione)

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Valuations, Liquidity and Transparency

[G]reater foreign participation in the equity market is only possible if investors become confident about the long-term sustainability of local businesses…. By reforming the structure of these businesses and accepting international business practices, these businesses may be able to win the confidence of global investors and witness greater flow of capital. (Arabian Gazette)

Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) recently upgraded Qatar from frontier market to emerging market.  While this is good news for Qatar and Qatari companies, it is interesting to note that in 2008, MSCI declined to elevate Qater to emerging market status due in part to shortcomings in market technology and mechanisms.  Five years later, Qatar becomes an emerging market, but just as the wave of emerging market interest has started to recede. (See “Is the Emerging Market Boom Over?” in today’s Guardian newspaper.)

Want your market to be an attractive destination for foreign capital?  Consider Qatar’s experience and think about making infrastructure and regulatory upgrades sooner rather than later.

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The Siren Call of Synthetic Investments

 [Dan Katz at Bank of America Merrill Lynch] began by explaining that there were a number of different synthetic products that can be used to access a variety of different emerging and frontier market countries.

[snip]

However, he stated that “it can be very difficult to access those [emerging and frontier market] countries” in a timely manner and also be costly to do so locally because of the need to have local accounts in India and qualified investor status in China, for example. “Or it may be from a tax perspective more expensive to invest locally as is the case with certain investors in Brazil,” he added.

Does your market put up significant barriers to entry by foreign capital in order to protect local interests?  That may be counter-productive to growth in the long term.  The fact is that non-local investors want to be in your market, and if they can’t do it directly, they will find ways to invest synthetically.  If they do, it’s the local interests that ultimately lose out, because synthetic investments don’t have the local impacts – market quality, liquidity, listings desirability – that direct investments do.  If you want to grow your market, consider eliminating those barriers to entry; as they say, a rising tide will lift all boats.

Read the original article here:  http://tinyurl.com/ko2ln3j

Myanmar set for stock exchange

Hat tip to Emerging Frontiers Blog for this one.

Myanmar set for stock exchange.

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Moving investors beyond “leaps of faith”

Investing in frontier markets carries plenty of dangers. Argentina’s government could decide to take over more private companies and leave investors with nothing. The war in Syria could spill into Lebanon and Jordan, upending their thriving markets. Cote d’Ivoire, Pakistan and many of the 37 frontier countries have had coups, wars and other turmoil over the past two decades.

“Buying into them has to be a long-term play,” says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. “You have to take some leaps of faith.” (Washington Post)

Smart money is moving into frontier markets.  Market operators in these  markets may not be able to eliminate all systemic risks for these investors, but there are meaningful steps that they can take to clarify their rules in order to minimize uncertainty  and build trust with investors.  Done right, these changes will mean that investments are not so much “leaps of faith” as they are “calculated risks”.

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“Corporate Governance is a Profitable Venture…”

“She noted that strengthening the corporate governance would make it more credible and attract the needed investment to grow the economy, saying, “We are partnering with the exchange because they are dealing with companies driven by directors who are our members. Corporate governance is a profitable venture because when people believe in you, they will do business with you.”

– Chief (Mrs) Eniola Fadayomi, President of the Institute of Directors Nigeria, speaking about partnering with the Nigerian Stock Exchange to strengthen corporate governance