Category Archives: MarketReg Advisors

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The Value of Market Integrity…

“[T]he most important thing was to establish that we (regulators) would not permit anything that is wrong in the Nigerian stock market. Whether in investing in companies or investing through exchanges in Nigeria because nobody would ever accept to give another person money if they know that person will defraud them of that money.  So that was first most important for us, what you will call the restoring the integrity of the market.”

Arunma Oteh, Director General, Nigerian Securities and Exchange Commission

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/oteh-attributes-stock-market-recovery-to-reforms/168678/

Herding, Crowding and “Heterogeneous Motivations” (oh my!)

Consider this quote from a local investment professional in Malaysia:

When foreigners sell, that’s the best time to buy. [Foreigners] buy only when the market is going up, and they push the price way up. And they sell all the way down. They do all the wrong things. They are willing to sell all the way down to owning nothing in the Malaysian stock market.

And this one:

Fund managers in foreign houses are exposed to a lot of things. They don’t look at one angle, they look at several angles. Same topic, but they look at different angles. If you can look at a certain situation in a different way, you will win points. So it’s good to talk with foreign funds. Most of them have been longer in the industry than most [Malaysians]. And they are exposed to analysts from different countries, and these analysts have different ways of looking at things.

Which one is right?

Aaron Pitluck, a sociologist, looks at why traders invest in emerging markets, and asks why locals either seem to replicate the foreign traders’ trades, or trade against them.  One explanation is that locals perceive foreigners to be less knowledgable or less skilled (and therefore the locals try to trade against them); another is that locals view foreigners as being at least as well-informed, or better-informed, than locals, causing the locals to imitate the foreign investors.  But which is the more persuasive explanation?

Pitluck suggests a different explanation altogether:  neither is correct. Instead, he posits that local and foreign participants are playing different games and that the games can’t be compared directly.  And this, he suggests, can be good for liquidity:

[O]ne significant contribution to a market’s liquidity may be a market with heterogeneous participants with respect to strategic intentions for trading. Additionally, markets may be more liquid when participants have heterogeneous information sets (i.e., having heterogeneous views of what information is salient and heterogeneous interpretations of public information). Conversely, one cause of illiquidity may be when market participants’ strategic intention sets or information sets become more homogenous, and/or when traders with heterogeneous strategy or information sets increasingly avoid trading.

In other words, although they are usually buying and selling the same securities, local and foreign participants may be guided by divergent motivations that make them willing to trade against each other even though they all have the same information.  Foreign exchange rate fluctuations, for example, may induce foreign investors to sell because it reduces their IRR, even as local investors see a buy opportunity because the new exchange rate promises a favorable benefit to a local listed company.  Or the foreign investor may be liquidating a position in one country to take advantage of an opportunity in another, while local participants are limited by regulation or resources to stay in the local market.  In either case, their strategies are incommensurable; they can’t be described as either “following the herd” or “separating the fools from their money.”  They’re just playing different games.

The point here is that regulations and policies that encourage participation by players with heterogeneous motivations may promote liquidity, because it increases the likelihood that rational participants will meet as counterparties.  Market operators and apex regulators looking to improve liquidity in a local market should therefore consider steps they can take to create the conditions for heterogeneous motivations, whether through loosening barriers to foreign direct investment, or promoting local regulations that will shift the motivations of local participants.

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Staffing Advice: “Unite public zeal with unusual capacity”

Nothing less is involved than to keep Wall Street in its place, to furnish a counterpoise against its aggrandisement of power, by which the Street all along the line resists efforts by the government for the common interest. And so plainly, you need administrators who are equipped to meet the best legal brains whom Wall Street always has at its disposal, who have stamina and do not weary of the fight, who are moved neither by blandishments nor fears, who in a word, unite public zeal with unusual capacity.

Advice from Felix Frankfurter to President Franklin Roosevelt on staffing the newly-formed SEC, in a letter dated May 23, 1934, but also sound strategic advice to apex regulators today.

Myanmar set for stock exchange

Hat tip to Emerging Frontiers Blog for this one.

Myanmar set for stock exchange.

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“Corporate Governance is a Profitable Venture…”

“She noted that strengthening the corporate governance would make it more credible and attract the needed investment to grow the economy, saying, “We are partnering with the exchange because they are dealing with companies driven by directors who are our members. Corporate governance is a profitable venture because when people believe in you, they will do business with you.”

– Chief (Mrs) Eniola Fadayomi, President of the Institute of Directors Nigeria, speaking about partnering with the Nigerian Stock Exchange to strengthen corporate governance

Capital Wants Regulatory Certainty

Welcome to the website of MarketReg Advisors.

As the financial markets around the world have grown more and more interconnected, those who have capital have seen an explosion in the number and variety of places where they can deploy that capital.  It’s not news that smart investors are looking for opportunities and returns, nor is it news that they’re willing to consider investments in emerging and frontier markets that were previously inaccessible to them due to technological barriers.  But it is an opportunity for market operators who understand how and why capital moves to move it to their markets instead of somebody else’s market.

As barriers to entry have fallen, capital has never been more far-ranging or moved as fast as it does today.  But capital these days isn’t only fast and creative, it’s also smart.  Investors in emerging markets want stability, predictability and transparency.  They want to know how their capital will be received, traded, settled and safeguarded.  They’re not afraid of taking economic risks, but they will avoid markets where they perceive that their money won’t be treated fairly in the face of local interests, or where the legal protections for investors are weak, or where there is not adequate transparency in financial, legal or accounting controls.  Simply put, they want to know what the rules are, how they can change, and how they’ll be enforced.

MarketReg Advisors can help you strengthen your regulatory infrastructure to give investors – foreign and local – the reassurances they’re seeking.  With over ten years experience in all aspects of regulating financial markets, MarketReg Advisors can help you identify areas for enhancing your regulatory presence, and help you design and implement regulatory structures that are attractive to foreign direct investment and capital inflows.